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Main - General MFN Discussion

Draft booms and busts

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
10/21/2013 8:38 pm
I sort of slipped it in an e-mail update a while back, but in case you missed it, I've added boom and bust logic to the players. A small number of players (1-2% range) will boom, and an equally small number of players will bust. All players will kind of trend to at least a small degree in one direction or another. If a player starts at 100 future and they boom, you wouldn't notice it really; same with a really bad player busting. Once a player's current value reaches his max, he will stabilize, i.e. the closer the two numbers are together the less likely they will boom or bust. But where it gets interesting is when a not-so-good player booms or a really good player busts.

I just completed a test sim from 2013 - 2020, and then looked at the 2014 draft to see where they fell in 2020, specifically the 1st round to see who the worst busts was, and the 7th round to see who the best boom was.

In this particular draft, the biggest bust was a running back, who was drafted with a rating of 41/70 and in 2020 is now 54/54. Not too bad of a bust, but he started with a pretty high current value and you probably wouldn't have wanted to draft a 54-rated player in the first round. In the 7th round, the biggest boom was a WLB who was drafted almost at the end of the 7th (7.25 to be exact) at 23/38 - but in 2020 is 68/70. He's booming so much his current is having a hard time catching his future.

This is certainly not the norm, as there were plenty of players who stuck with an appropriate value for their round - but I wanted to report this and encourage you to not throw your late round draft picks away. Another note is that the first training camp _may_ give you a good idea of whether you have a boom or a bust. (Not 100% indicative, but if he's going to boom then his first TC will go pretty well). So think about that as you make roster cuts after TC.

On a side note, the coaches also now have this logic - as the new ones come out they will be rated around 50. Some will boom into great coaches, others will fizzle out and be no good, about the same percentage as the players. So as early FA stages come around you might want to keep an eye on promoting other team's coaches into your staff, because some of those position coaches and coordinators are going to crawl up to become good candidates for promotion.

Re: Draft booms and busts

By ZootMurph
10/21/2013 9:03 pm
Great info... thanks JDB!