The uniform distribution for volatility, to me, would allow for risker moves than that. I like going for high scores late, but will play it safe sometimes if the player is rated well in a system or a postion convertion was missed.

Rarely do i pick 100's, if anything there is a consentration of 10-20's and 80's-90's on my one team i pay attention to while having a lack of middle guys.(This is all pre scores, we have only done one draft).

My best and worst guys have no ryhme or reason for booming or busting. Except, an extremly high volatile high potential player i will stay away from early and in the opposite an extremly low volatile low potential player late. (4/53 guys on my team fall into that category, i most likely cut the others).

Still, i though i had a tell, but perhaps it just kept me away from the extreme extremes, cause in my mind i was picking to stay the same or go up. But really it seems 1/3 go up 1/3 stay the same, and 1/3 go down over the course lets say 10 drafts.

Hitting on 2-3 out of 7 draftees is about average here. So taking a risk any round is fun to say the least, but more talent/value might be at the cusp of 2nd and 3rd standard deviations or randomly in my case it is, cause i good rolls on my first two picks in MFN 1.

Tavon Austin?

Try being a Browns Fan.

1-1 Tim Couch
1-1 Courtney Brown
1-3 Gerard Warren
1-16 William Green
1-21 Jeff Faine (Not a Bust, Not a Star either)
1-6 Kellen Winslow, Jr (Star Potential, Bust CAREER)
1-3 Braylon Edwards (Star Potential, Bust CAREER)
1-13 Kamerion Wimbley (decent Career, Bust due to High Draft Status)
1-3 Joe Thomas (HOF LT, woohoo! We finally hit on one!)
1-22 Brady Quinn
1-21 Alex Mack (Not a Bust)
1-7 Joe Haden (Not a Bust)
1-21 Phil Taylor
1-3 Trent Richardson
1-22 Brandon Weeden
1-6 Barkevious Mingo
1-8 Justin Gilbert
1-22 Johnny Manziel
1-12 Danny Shelton
1-19 Cameron Erving
1-15 Corey Coleman (Looks like we got another one! WOOHOO!)

So with 21 1st Round Picks the Cleveland Browns Drafted 13 Complete Busts *some of these guys recently Drafted can turn it around* in Erving, Shelton, Manziel, Gilbert, Mingo, Weeden, Richardson, Taylor, Quinn, Green, Warren, Brown and Couch.

Then they added 4 Career Busts, meaning they either played well but not up to Draft Status or had a good Year or Two but a ho-hum Career, and also didn't stay with the Browns for a majority of their Career in Wimbley, Edwards, Winslow Jr and Faine.

That's 17 Busts in 21 Picks.

The other 4 Players are Coleman, who is a Rookie WR still in his first Pre-Season, Joe Haden who has been good but never spectacular, Alex Mack who was a Pro Bowl level Center, and Joe Thomas who will go into the HOF at LT.

So if you ask a Brown's Fan what the Percentage of First Round Busts is... we'll say something around 85%. :D

Great post Brex, I really feel for Browns fans, who are as good as any in pro football. I cringed when they picked "Johnny Football", his volatility factor would be 200 in this sim, lol. I have a good friend who grew up near Cleve and is die hard, which is great, so I get to hear about them a lot. How about Josh Gordon? One of the big fantasy subjects this year, and when to draft him. Someday the sun will shine on the Browns, look at the Cubbies. Maybe some day they will have a head coach and all-time great running back with the same last name again, :)

Ha! True.

@Brrexkl
Well another way to look at it is if all those draft picks had worked then really it really wouldn't a discussion about what the Browns do in their drafts or what they do with the draft picks.
heck they might be a dynasty if all or most those draft picks had worked out.

@GrandadB
Reason the Cubs are now making noise in MLB is you can say they took chances on people in their drafts , taking chances in trades , taking chances in signing players , etc. and now they are reaping the rewards because of their risk taking.

So really the Browns would have to do the same thing and maybe even have some outside the box thinking the Cubs Manager has done and shown he will do for the BROWNS to actually make noise in the NFL like the Cubs are doing in MLB.

In Cust-10, I'm doing an experiment and only drafting players with a vol over 80. The team I took over didn't have a 1st round pick, and I was able to move other picks to fill out my depleted roster, so I have the rare opportunity to not have to rely on the draft in rebuilding a team. I figure going high vol will allow me to find at least one boomer.

Well, if I pick em pretty much bet on them being a bust.