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Main - General MFN Discussion

Trending players

By drogers
6/06/2016 8:16 am
Do player trends stay consistent? in other words if a player improves +3/+1 for example, will he continue to trend up? Or does it vary? Same for down?

Re: Trending players

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
6/06/2016 8:59 am
drogers wrote:
Do player trends stay consistent? in other words if a player improves +3/+1 for example, will he continue to trend up? Or does it vary? Same for down?


Possibly, but it's hard to tell from just one training camp (especially if it's as small as that). Over a season or 2 you should be able to deduce some more accurate trending. If you have a player that moves more than 5 points in TC then you probably have a good indication of his trending.

Re: Trending players

By drogers
6/06/2016 9:01 am
So there is variable movement? Up then down or vice versa? Also what actionable factors can affect this. Playing time?

Re: Trending players

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
6/06/2016 1:09 pm
drogers wrote:
So there is variable movement? Up then down or vice versa? Also what actionable factors can affect this. Playing time?


Each player has an assigned trend direction, but the movement is random. It's just a normal distribution random movement with a pre-assigned mean. The mean itself is normally distributed with a mean of zero, so 60% of the players generated will have no significant movement, whereas 3% will wildly boom or bust.

Re: Trending players

By parsh
6/06/2016 4:12 pm
jdavidbakr wrote:
drogers wrote:
So there is variable movement? Up then down or vice versa? Also what actionable factors can affect this. Playing time?


Each player has an assigned trend direction, but the movement is random. It's just a normal distribution random movement with a pre-assigned mean. The mean itself is normally distributed with a mean of zero, so 60% of the players generated will have no significant movement, whereas 3% will wildly boom or bust.


I seem to get the 3% busts ... lol

Re: Trending players

By setherick
6/06/2016 7:50 pm
parsh wrote:
jdavidbakr wrote:
drogers wrote:
So there is variable movement? Up then down or vice versa? Also what actionable factors can affect this. Playing time?


Each player has an assigned trend direction, but the movement is random. It's just a normal distribution random movement with a pre-assigned mean. The mean itself is normally distributed with a mean of zero, so 60% of the players generated will have no significant movement, whereas 3% will wildly boom or bust.


I seem to get the 3% busts ... lol


That was me in 13 past draft. I got all of the 3%...